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Scenario Modelling for COVID-19 Uncertainty

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There couldn't be a better time to understand and apply the skills of financial modelling when there is so much uncertainty.

In an unprecedented disruption to business, it's really difficult to really know what will happen exactly.

Nobody does, not even if you’re using the best financial model or the best financial modeller can predict the future.

But, that's not the point of a model or modelling anyway.

It's about the relative outcomes and scenarios, not the absolute outcome or answer. Knowing the range of outcomes and impacts of key decisions like staff redundancies, and working capital impacts are key.

Giving business owners or stakeholders a range of possible outcomes vs the finger in the air is still very valuable.

Understanding your numbers is important but past results are not really going to help much during the current pandemic.

However the drivers and logic of how the results were achieved is critical to building a robust model.

Building a financial model to be able to adjust for different scenarios is important, especially during periods of economic uncertainty.

Manually hardcoding or overriding numbers is dangerous and saving multiple versions of the model is a huge waste of time, not to mention difficult to compare the different scenarios.

What about having to run lots of scenarios (like 100’s or 1000’s)?

How do you do that in the most efficient way?

Below are links to a webinar with Danielle Stein Fairhurst as well as links to our 1-way cash flow model.

Complete the form below to also get the free slides from the webinar.

Webinar

Join financial modelling specialists Lance Rubin streaming live from Melbourne and Danielle Stein Fairhurst joining from Sydney as they discuss ways to incorporate scenarios and sensitivities into a model so that it can be adjusted quickly and easily as inputs and assumptions change.

Access to the 1-way cash flow model and App

This 1 Way Cash Flow Model is intended to assist the many accountants and finance professionals in rapidly getting their hands on a financial model that they can use to run scenarios and even simulations if they wish regarding stimulus and other measures to tackle COVID-19.

The model requires input on the historical cash flows for 12 months and only requires an opening balance sheet.

The model has been built with Jan-20 as the closing balance sheet and cash flows 12 months prior to that.

Included is a scenario manager which also includes the ability to run monte carlo simulations using VBA.

If you need help with any further customisation let us know and we can help.

We have also built a Cash Flow Model App to help you understand and log any issues.

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